The freedom for ships to sail in the Middle East is at a critical turning point. It is no longer just missiles and drones: the new threat to global trade is known as the ‘war toll’.
According to experts attending Marine Insurance Asia 2026, Iran’s illegal toll system in the Strait of Hormuz could soon be replicated by the Houthi rebels at Bab el-Mandeb, turning the Red Sea into a pay-to-enter passage under the control of the militias.
The warning comes from Joe Sheffer, director of the British intelligence firm Obsidian International. According to Lloyd’s List, the analyst has confirmed that there’s an attempt being made to formalize control over maritime traffic.
With logistical support from Tehran, the Yemeni militia is reportedly seeking to move from destructive attacks to economic control over shipping routes, deciding who is allowed to transit and at what price.
The news comes as a shock to giants such as Maersk and CMA CGM. Following the lull at the end of the year, the companies were tentatively resuming their Red Sea routes, but the recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has made them panic again. “If Iran can seize ships and demand payments – the underlying reasoning goes – nothing prevents their Yemeni allies from doing the same on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.”
The military option therefore appears to be losing its effectiveness. Sheffer pointed out that the seizure of weapons in August 2025 (when Yemeni counter-terrorism authorities intercepted a ship laden with weapons from China) was merely a taste of the technological firepower amassed by the Houthis. Despite the blockades, a steady flow of advanced equipment continues to arrive at the port of Hodeidah, making the militia too well-armed to be neutralised by air strikes alone.
Analysts highlight a crucial point: the Houthis are demanding political autonomy. By framing their actions as a defence of the Palestinian cause or Yemen, they reserve the right to strike selectively. This makes pressure on shipping a conditional political weapon: a form of economic blackmail on a global scale that could redefine the costs of every single container bound for Europe.
Recent reports presented by Obsidian International paint a picture in which the Houthi militants’ technology is outpacing the defensive capabilities of even the most advanced destroyers, threatening to permanently shut down one of the vital lifelines of global trade.
According to Joe Sheffer, the incident involving the Royal Navy’s HMS Diamond in January 2024 marked a dramatic turning point. In just one night, the ship shot down no fewer than seven drones targeting merchant vessels, setting a record for the British Navy.
The analyst’s reasoning is that if a vessel of that class can be put in difficulty or overwhelmed, the escort tactics used so far will become useless. “There will be no way to organize safe convoys,” he warns. “If military protection fails, the route will simply be closed.”
Speaking to Port News, Gian Enzo Duci described Sheffer’s comments as “disturbing,” pointing out that the end of free access to the seas would mark the twilight of today’s globalization.
Recalling previous instances of US incursions beyond Venezuela’s and India’s territorial waters, Mr. Duci emphasised that a new wave of tensions is now threatening freedom of navigation.
“We must stay the course and remain vigilant,” says the managing director of ESA Group, adding that “there can be no question of tolls for maritime transit in areas not supported by infrastructure. It is not even remotely acceptable that a transit fee should be charged in certain seas, in defiance of 80 years of international maritime law”.
Mr. Duci points out that the last tolls levied on maritime transit were abolished in 1857; the ones Denmark had charged for centuries to ships sailing between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.
According to the expert analyst, upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) therefore remains the only way to safeguard the freedom of the seas, as Grotius first formulated in the 17th century, which is now under serious threat. “The current wording is the result of a development that began with the debate between mare liberum (Grotius, 1609) and mare clausum (Selden, 1635). UNCLOS represents the culmination of this process, transforming a philosophical principle into a binding legal regime, at least until now…”
Duci puts it in no uncertain terms: “It is clear that the Houthis, like the Iranians, have increasingly sophisticated capabilities, making navigation increasingly precarious; but calling these principles into question would spell the end of the free use of the sea.”
Translation by Giles Foster
