Further concern for the Panama Canal. According to the latest data released by NOAA (the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) in its regular monthly update, the El Niño phenomenon is set to persist. According to NOAA’s September forecasts, there is a 97% probability of a ‘Super El Niño’ occurring this autumn and winter, which is set to last until early spring. El Niño conditions have got significantly worse in the central Pacific, with a 75 % probability of it reaching record intensity between October and December 2026, according to NOAA.
The weather forecast is set to be unprecedented: there is a 75% probability that the current scenario will go down as the strongest El Niño phenomenon since records began (1950). This is causing concern across the entire global supply chain. The correlation is now well established: an El Niño of this magnitude results in a drastic reduction in rainfall in the Panamanian region, directly affecting Lake Gatún, the reservoir that is essential for the operation of the Canal’s locks.
The water level in Lake Gatún is currently 84.1 feet. This is significantly below the seasonal average, which normally ranges between 86 and 87 feet. Forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) paint a grim picture: in November, the water level will rise only slightly, reaching 84.3 feet compared with the 87–88 feet recorded under normal conditions.
Translation by Giles Foster