After raising levies to unprecedented levels on Liberation Day, 2nd April and then suspending them, Trump recently signed a new executive order imposing 10% to 41% tariffs on imports from various trading partners.
The White House has confirmed a 15% tariff on goods from the European Union, in line with last week’s preliminary agreement in Brussels. The current temporary suspension of levies on Chinese goods until 12th August has been confirmed. Other countries, such as Taiwan and Vietnam, will be subject to 20% duties. India will also be penalized, with a 25% tariff, as will Canada with a 35% one, while Brazil will be subject to a 50% one. Another surprise is the levies on Swiss goods, which will be 39%.
For container markets, the new round of negotiations will have negative repercussions on imports from the United States.
According to Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, it is highly likely that many importers will adopt a wait-and-see approach over the next few days and weeks before making any commitments, in the hope that some of the high tariffs will be put on hold or modified again. Meanwhile, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), a US association that includes retailers such as Walmart and Target, the new levy could deal a severe blow to the profits of small and medium-sized retailers, who will no longer be able to sustain transport costs and will pass them on to consumers.
NRF Executive Vice President of Government Relations Dylan Jeon pointed out that, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, over $100 billion in tariff revenue has been collected since 20th January 2025, which, unfortunately, has been paid by American importers, not foreign trading partners.
“The impact of the current trade policy agenda goes far beyond increased costs for retailers and manufacturers,” he adds, pointing out that rising costs and falling revenues due to declining consumer confidence paint a worrying picture for the labour market and the economy in general.
The Vizion platform highlights how container bookings from the United States declined week-on-week in July compared to 2024 figures, with the exception of bookings made between 14th and 20th July, which recorded a 4.1% increase on a weekly basis. Overall, between 340,000 and 375,000 TEUs were booked in July, representing an average year-on-year decline of almost 14% and a negative trend that analysts expect to continue into August.
Container bookings from China to the US are following the same trend, with an average year-on-year decline of 30% in the five weeks of July.
“This (trade) lane remains highly sensitive to policy shifts, sourcing changes, and demand fluctuations across key sectors like electronics and consumer goods,” explains Vizion.
Market volatility therefore remains high, with negative repercussions on container shipping rates, which continue to fall. For instance, Lloyd’s List reports that the Shanghai Freight Container Index was down 2% last week in traffic between Shanghai and the US West Coast, settling at an average of $2,021/FEU. Freight rates for services connecting the Far East and the East Coast fell by 7%, with rates dropping to an average of $3,126 per FEU.
Xeneta analyst Emily Stausboll points out that freight rates from the Far East to the US are now at their lowest levels since December 2023. She forecasts that rates will continue to fall in August, stressing that the agreements Trump is preparing to sign with some of his trading partners will not have the same positive effects on the market as the 90-day tariff breaks announced on 11th April (for all countries except China) and 12th May (for China).
She believes that there won’t be any more rush to import goods for the remainder of 2025, with the increasing shippers and freight forwarders difficulties are facing, unable to secure substantial profit margins due to the devastating impact that tariffs will have on their pockets, despite benefiting from lower freight rates.
Carriers will also struggle to make ends meet: “They may be fighting a losing battle,” says Stausboll, who believes that shipping companies will have no choice but to accept lower freight rates. It will be difficult for them to reverse the trend by resorting to blank sailings.
Drewry forecasts 53 cancellations out of 724 scheduled departures between week 32 (4-10 August) and week 36 (1-7 September), with a cancellation rate of 7%.
Most of the cancellations announced will affect the eastbound transpacific route (45% of scheduled departures cancelled). This is followed by the Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean trade (28%) and the westbound transatlantic route (26%).
“Amid shifting trade dynamics and ongoing capacity adjustments, market conditions are likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks,” says the consultancy firm, which recommends shippers “stay flexible.”
“Geopolitical shifts, weather disruptions, and evolving trade policies continue to pose risks to supply chain stability” concludes the market analyst.
Translation by Giles Foster
