It is now clear to everyone that the US–imposed levies, which risk being outlawed, represent not only an economic lever for Trump but also a negotiating one to overturn decades of multilateral practices.
The shipping industry is also trying to adapt to the new global disorder, adjusting to a highly volatile scenario in which trade dynamics are being continually redefined according to the logic of immediate tactical advantages.
As reported by MDS Transmodal, the constant stop-and-go approach to reciprocal customs tariffs with China, with new rounds of talks and sudden U-turns, has ended up redirecting shipping trade routes between the Far East and North America.
The transport consultancy firm notes the growing trend among liners to take increasingly longer routes to reach the wealthy North American markets.
“In the midst of tariff uncertainty and systematic fleet expansion, the container industry is remapping US connectivity, prioritizing resilience and service coverage over short-distance efficiency,” Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at the analysis firm, told Port News.
“The truth is that, over the last few months, the scheduled box shipping capacity on North American routes has not decreased, but increased,” says the expert analyst, pointing out that between September 2024 and September 2025, the scheduled capacity in these trades has risen by just under 3%, to over 5 million TEUs/month.
However, analyzing tonnage distribution across specific link services brings out some surprises. In fact, it’s not the capacity deployed on direct services between the Far East and North America that has risen, down 8.6% year-on-year, but capacity on routes connecting the American continent with Europe (+7%), the Gulf countries, and the Indian subcontinent (+70%).
According to MDS Transmodal, the current state of affairs reflects the geopolitical scenario, characterized by the threat of new US levies on Chinese exports and the need for operators to deploy more vessels on longer, more service-intensive routes.
“The effect is not a downturn in overall capacity between the Far East and the United States, but rather a reconfiguration: what used to be shipped directly across the Pacific is increasingly being routed through intermediate regions,” comments Antonella Teodoro, who believes that carriers’ strategies highlight this change.
MSC, for example, has reduced its direct transpacific coverage, and upped its overall distribution in North America by almost 90,000 TEUs, largely through expanding its services connecting Europe, the Gulf, and the Americas.
HMM has added over 70,000 TEUs, with new routes outside its transpacific core services, while Evergreen and ONE have also strengthened their positions on diversified routes.
On the contrary, Yang Ming has reduced its transpacific capacity by almost 70%, without compensating for growth elsewhere.
Maersk, on the other hand, has significantly boosted its services between the Far East and the United States, but scaled back other corridors, closing with a slight overall decline. CMA CGM, meanwhile, has reduced its transpacific slots by one third, partially offsetting this by expanding in other markets.
The analysis provided by the British consultancy firm also brings another critical factor to light: the boxship fleet capacity is growing at a much faster rate than current levels of utilization in the various trades. Compared to market needs, there is now a surplus of 6.5 million TEUs (19.9% of a total capacity of 32,868,750 TEUs).
“To use this tonnage, carriers are shifting toward longer routes, which require a greater number of vessels to maintain the required weekly frequency,” Antonella Teodoro points out, recalling how the Red Sea crisis is currently helping carriers absorb a significant portion of this excess capacity, due to increasing sailing times, with ships being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the unsafe passage through the Bab el Mandeb Strait and Suez.
“In this scenario, tonnage redistribution is as much a matter of operational necessity as it is of tariff coverage,” comments the senior analyst at MDS Transmodal. “By diversifying routes and shifting capacity to Europe, India, and the Gulf, carriers are positioning themselves both to absorb newly built tonnage and to protect themselves from potential trade policy shocks,” she adds, pointing out that “carriers with flexible hub networks are in a better position to capture rerouted demand, while operators heavily reliant on direct transpacific traffic are exposed to the fragility of the geopolitical situation.”
To sum up, US importers need not fear any reduction in capacity on connecting services with the Far East. Longer routes are being taken to reach trade destination markets.
Translation by Giles Foster
