The ocean shipping market on the Asia-North America route is undergoing an unprecedented structural shift. According to the latest report from Sea-Intelligence (Sunday Spotlight No. 761), the market share of independent carriers — i.e., those operating outside the major global alliances — has plummeted to levels that haven’t been seen in the last ten years.
The data taken from the Trade Capacity Outlook database speaks for itself: after years of strong growth, capacity not linked to the major shipping alliances is rapidly dwindling.
Apart from the sudden drop at the start of the pandemic, the number of independent operators on the route to the North American West Coast (NAWC) is now at an all-time low.
Sea Int. suggests that this share is set to fall below 15% of total capacity.
This phenomenon is not coincidental but closely linked to freight rates. Sea-Intelligence has identified a very strong correlation (79%) between shipping tariff trends and the presence of independent carriers. High spot rates lead to a massive influx of new capacity not linked to alliances, whilst low rates cause a rapid withdrawal of such capacity.
This trend occurs around 18 weeks after fluctuations in spot prices.
Despite the drop in numbers, analysts point out that competition in the Pacific remains, paradoxically, fierce. The ability of independent carriers to rapidly enter and exit the market demonstrates remarkable structural resilience: a survival strategy based on agility, which allows them to step up their presence only when economic conditions make it viable.
Translation by Giles Foster
